Taiwan and the ECFA: New Predictions

You know how much economic predictions from the president or the cabinet are valuable:

  • * 6% growth rate for the GDP
  • * Unemployment reduced to 3%
  • * 3,000 Chinese tourists per day, saving the Taiwanese economy
  • * The TAIEX (stock market index) above 10,000 and even reaching 20,000
  • * Consumer vouchers increasing the GDP by at least 0.6%

After several months, we can see the results…

Anyway, there is a new prediction, which this time concerns the ECFA (Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement between China and Taiwan).

The today’s Taipei Times and China Post quoted the minister of economic affairs:


if an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) is signed between Taiwan and China,the gross domestic product will increase by 1.374 percent in 2010. Without the ECFA, (minister) warned, the economy will shrink (GDP will shrink by at least one percent).


A large part of the population, businessmen and academics worry about this agreement.

So as usual, the cabinet is trying to scare the people: if we don’t sign, it will be like hell!

But you know what is funny?

NOBODY knows anything about the content of this ECFA.

It has been kept secret…

Moreover, the funny stuff is that officials said that nothing is really totally done and negotiated about this ECFA.

So, here is my question:

How did the minister could obtain a so precise estimation?

1.374% (!)

Not something about 1% or between 1 and 2 %.




I am impressed!




4 Responses

  1. they really full of it and they think people are that stupid to believe them

    and guess what…
    people are…
    1.374… what a lovely number
    must be a lucky number produced by some fortune-telling master
    by the way, the minister of economic affairs likes to tell jokes, remember?

  2. Yes Jo, I DO remember 🙂


  3. Unless they disclose the terms in the agreement, I don’t see there is a reason to trust them. The numbers are probably made up…

    Unfortunately, the majority of people in Taiwan are not very well educated. They’ll probably believe those technical numbers to be real and get hypnotize by the news media. After all, the news media in Taiwan is controlled by the current government.

  4. Howard yes, it seems that Taiwanese are believing all the published news…

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