What’s About Taiwan Economy?

If you remember the presidential campaign in Taiwan, you must have in your mind how the “Taiwanese economy was bad“.

I posted earlier today HERE (my Forex blog) a quick commentary about Taiwanese economy without any partisan or political point of view (especially as a guest in this beautiful country, I don’t consider myself as authorized to get involved in the domestic politics).

So the point of view is purely from a financial economist’s one.

I just want to remind that the “so poor Taiwanese economy” shows that the real GDP rose 6.4% on the year-over-the-year basis on the last quarter of 2007 and the unemployment rate was not so bad (lowest since 7 years).

The good policy from the central bank helped to boost the capital inflows.

But now, Taiwan is facing the consequences of a global slowing down (except for some developing countries).

I do not think so that few hundred Chinese tourists per week will be the solution…

And I don’t think so that pushing to invest in China is good, especially that the investment environment in China deteriorated while investment risks increased for the first time this year, and nearly 10 percent of Taiwanese manufacturers in China expressed a willingness to return if the government would provide sufficient incentives, a report released 2 days ago (see HERE).

We are now very far away of the presidential campaign promises…


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7 Responses

  1. Since you mention it, I have a serious question for you.
    Yesterday, after the 830 march on the street, the KMT chairman, Wu, addressed, angrily, that it was totally unfair to blame Ma’s administration for they have only been in power for 100 days. It is not fair that they should be taking all the blames for Chen’s sh*thole.
    Now I am not an expert in economy and let’s put all the political point of view aside.
    Is it so true about what Wu said? Are all the worsen situations in economy the consequences from Chen’s administration? Or has Chen again been the scapegoat for everything??
    Expert shoot.

  2. Yes Jo, I read the comment of Wu today on the web…
    Really ridiculous…
    Of course the Taiwanese economy was not as bad as described in the blue media during the campaign.
    Just read my post about Taiwan in my Forex blog and you will see.
    As usual, it’s a way to divert the attention of the Taiwanese.
    See for example what people believed from Ma and Siew: “we are ready!”…”we can do it right away”… “TAIEX will touch the 10,000 mark!”…”We can push the TAIEX to 20,000″…
    And then… Siew said it was just a “joke”…
    What’s a joke…
    But I remembered it was a promise. So do they mean that all the promises were just jokes?
    Since a long time, I don’t trust and believe political people, whatever the country we are talking about.
    But obviously in the Taiwanese case, the disinformation was too much…

  3. Truly KMT itself is the big joke.
    I hope those who voted for Ma for a better economy would wake up and see all the lies and truth behind all these for next election. Surely the blue media really know how to manipulate and brainwash people.
    I can only hope for those to keep their minds clear. Of course it’s their right to believe that things would get better when KMT is in power. But now things are getting to the opposite way they expected.
    Ma did do those he promised during the election, opening to China, and make friends with China. And then??? Doesn’t it turn out to be no use? What would they respond to that?
    In order not to become a “broken bitter cynic”, I hope they will wake up for next election.

    Politicians are not to meant to be trusted by default. They are only human beings like everyone else, some are good; some are not. And you don’t just trust someone for his/her profession, do you? That’s why we need laws and regulations to regulate their behaviours. Unfortunately, we don’t seem to have any punishment those politicians who do not deliver what they promise. I mean if some advertisement turns out to be misleading customers, the company can get sued and fined. So what about the politicians who ad with disinformation?
    Shame on those blue media. Disgusting…

  4. “Ma says promises can be realized, after 8 years”

    Apparently, it’s not only a joke.
    It’s just gonna take longer than he expected.
    So please vote for him again!

  5. Yes Jo. I read it.
    People vote for him because they believe he will do what he ever promised.
    And now he says something like…”oh you have to elect me one more time…and of course everything will be fine in the best world…”
    You are right…
    A joke…
    But a sad joke for people…

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  7. Like I mentioned to the pan-greeners on Pinyin.info, if Ma Yingjeou is as bad as you really think he is, then he’s a blessing in disguise; after the next election cycle, the Pan-blues will be totally discredited.

    On the other hand, given my pan-blue sympathies as a foreigner, there’s one thing that can be said for Ma Yingjeou. For the United States presidential elections, there has been a few studies on Republican and Democratic economic policies. What has been discovered is that the Democratic economic policies are linked to long-term growth, while the Republican economic policies are linked to short-term growth. The important thing is, electorally, the Republican economic policies come to fruition about 3 years after enactment, or, just in time for the next election cycle, and through this method the Republicans have been managing to get reelected with bad economic policy.

    What I mean by this is that it’s not correct to pass judgment on Ma Yingjeou immediately, you should at least wait until the next legislative election to determine whether he’s good or bad or not. He can afford to mess around now, but if he’s still limp-dicking it around re-election time, he’ll be the best present the KMT ever sent the DPP.

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