Presidential Election in Taiwan

Today is the big day, people above 20 years old been called to chose their new President in Taiwan.

It seems that M. MA Ying-Jeou (KMT candidate) will lead the race against his DPP opponent M. Frank HSIEH, after his party won a lopsided victory in Taiwan’s legislative polls on Jan. 12, with local polls still giving him double-digit leads 10 days ago (even though these polls are not so reliable…).

I think M. MA will win but not with a so big lead as published before in some newspapers.

I believe that M. HSIEH will be around 40% instead of the announced 32-35%.

The turnover should make the difference.

If a lot of KMT supporters strongly believe that whatever, their candidate will win, they could maybe go fishing today, giving more room to M. HSIEH.

I don’t think so that the recent events (Tibet, the intrusion by four KMT legislators, the green card story…) could dramatically change the result of the race or the opinion of people who have already made a choice.

But for the “hidden” voters, not having decided yet, it is possible. Question is what is their weight in the total voters in Taiwan.

In the last two presidential elections, DPP won because the blue side was divided by sending two candidates and the electoral system been based on one vote round only, the DPP candidate won with roughly 40% even though the blue side got about 60%.

Maybe the electoral system should be modified by allowing a two rounds system as for example in France.

Anyway this time, the blue did not make the same mistake.

The actual president is leaving with a lot of negative feelings among Taiwanese, including green supporters because his so many mistakes and the involvement of some of his family members in legal cases.

He is also accused to be responsible of a lot of problems (economy etc…).

In my Forex blog, I published a while ago that these accusations are mostly political brainwashing: figures are figures and facts are facts.

Beside, what a president and government could do when the parliament is totally controlled by the other side and moreover refuse to pass new laws, even cutting the budget? In this situation, it is not fair to blame the president and the government.

So in case M. HSIEH wins the election, what could he do? Nothing especially this time the parliament has even enough majority to recall the president.

If we remember what happened during the last 8 years, we could easily forecast that the victory of M. HSIEH will increase the political mess in Taiwan.

Who will suffer? Taiwanese and Taiwan. Legislators care more about power than people they are supposed to represent.

In one hand the victory of M. HSIEH will avoid all the power been in one hand only (but in a real democratic country, it should not be a problem – see e.g. in France or others countries).

But in another hand, it will create a very strong instability in Taiwan.

I could be wrong but the last 8 years support my view.

If M. MA wins, with a parliament been strongly on his side, KMT will have no excuses in the future.

But beside the presidential elections and during the same day, there are two referendums: one from the green side (join the U.N. under the name of Taiwan) and one from the blue side (go back to the U.N. under R.O.C. title or any other appropriate name).

It seems that the first one was widely supported by Taiwanese whatever their color.

So if this referendum obtains a majority today and even though if M. HSIEH loses the presidential election, it would be a victory for the DPP.

Election process started this morning at 08:00 (GMT+8) and will stop at 16:00.

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